Fragile Talks in Istanbul Yield Little Progress in Russia-Ukraine Peace Efforts

In Istanbul, Russia and Ukraine resumed direct negotiations for the first time in three years, but expectations were dampened by a persistent atmosphere of mistrust and low ambition. Though symbolic, the meeting’s results reflected the ongoing tensions more than any step toward real resolution, despite a shift in the Turkish skies from gray to sunlight during the day.

The only concrete achievements were a significant prisoner swap and the establishment of two points for potential future discussion: a face-to-face meeting between Putin and Zelensky and outlining a ceasefire. These outcomes, while not trivial, fell far short of hopes for a substantial breakthrough in peace talks at Istanbul’s Dolmabahçe Palace.

The ceasefire topic starkly revealed the gap between both sides. Ukraine has been pressing for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire, a proposal strongly backed by Western allies. However, Russia’s push for these talks allowed it to avoid that specific demand and the threat of increased sanctions if it did not comply.

Ukraine made clear its openness to stopping the conflict immediately. Foreign ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi expressed willingness to agree to a ceasefire on Friday itself. He hinted, however, that Russia’s delegation lacked the authority to make such a commitment, implying Moscow was not negotiating in earnest.

Russian negotiators, according to a Turkish official familiar with the talks, rejected the concept of an unconditional ceasefire outright. Their terms included a Ukrainian withdrawal from territories Russia does not currently occupy but claims as its own, particularly in regions it tried to annex in 2022: Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.

Such conditions are entirely unacceptable to Kyiv and widely viewed as unreasonable. Earlier this month, U.S. Vice President JD Vance criticized Russia’s demands, saying Moscow was “asking for too much” and thus undermining any potential for diplomatic success.

Meanwhile, U.S. frustration with the talks appeared to grow. U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, had held preliminary discussions with both delegations. Afterward, Rubio stated his disappointment, emphasizing that the expected high-level engagement between both sides did not materialize during the Istanbul summit.

In response, Ukraine quickly sought to reclaim the narrative. Almost immediately after the Istanbul talks, President Zelensky held a call from Albania with U.S. President Trump and key European allies, declaring Ukraine’s readiness for swift action if Russia agreed to cease hostilities unconditionally.

Zelensky emphasized Ukraine’s commitment to peace while simultaneously urging the international community to prepare stricter sanctions should Russia fail to compromise. Ukrainian officials in Istanbul echoed this, stating that any tentative progress must be backed with continued international pressure on Moscow.

Despite the challenges, Ukrainian officials highlighted the successful prisoner exchange as a diplomatic victory. “If we managed to agree on 1,000 for 1,000 exchange, we think this was already worth it,” said Tykhyi. Still, the road to peace remains long, especially given Russia’s unchanged demands and its apparent reluctance to elevate the negotiation level.